As the United States gears up for the presidential election on November 5, the race is heating up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Initially set as a 2020 rematch, the election was thrown into turmoil when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July, endorsing Harris as his successor. Now, Americans face a pivotal decision: will the country witness Trump's return to the Oval Office or its first female president?
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| Harris vs. Trump: A Tight Race for the White House in 2024 |
Who Leads in National Polls?
Before Biden’s exit, polls consistently showed Trump with a strong lead over the sitting president. Even in hypothetical matchups, Harris didn't perform much better. However, after launching her campaign, Harris quickly gained momentum, and since then, she has maintained a slight edge over Trump in the average of national polls.
As of the latest data:
- Harris: 47%
- Trump: 44%
These figures haven't shifted significantly since Harris concluded the Democratic convention in Chicago, where she delivered a powerful speech on August 22. Meanwhile, Trump’s numbers remained steady, even after securing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s endorsement in late August.
Polling in Battleground States
While national polls provide a general picture, the real battle lies in key battleground states. The Electoral College system means that winning votes in these swing states matters more than nationwide popularity.
Currently, the polls are too close to call in seven battleground states. The race is razor-thin in Pennsylvania, which holds the most electoral votes among swing states, and could be crucial in determining the election outcome. Recent surveys show Harris and Trump neck-and-neck, with less than a one-point difference in some states.
Harris will need to reclaim states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that Biden won in 2020. These states flipped red for Trump in 2016 but returned to the Democratic fold in 2020. If Harris can keep them blue, her path to the White House becomes clearer.
How Are Poll Averages Calculated?
The polling data comes from a range of sources and is compiled by polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, part of ABC News. FiveThirtyEight aggregates national and state-level polling from credible sources, applying strict quality control measures. Only polls that disclose their methodology, including sample sizes and how the data was collected, are included in the averages.
Can We Trust the Polls?
Even though polls provide valuable insights, they aren’t foolproof. Both in 2016 and 2020, polling underestimated Trump’s support. Pollsters are working to correct those issues, but predicting the actual election turnout remains a complex task. Voter behavior on November 5 could still surprise pollsters, making this election one of the most closely watched in recent history.
As the election nears, one thing is clear: every vote will count, and the outcome remains uncertain.
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